The Social Security cost-of-living adjustment for 2027 will be fixed on Wednesday 14 October, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes September’s consumer price figures at 8:30am Eastern time. The Social Security Administration normally announces the new percentage the same morning. As of Tuesday 13 October, no official figure has been released.
Forecasts built on inflation data through August have mostly landed around 3.5%. That would be the largest annual increase since the 8.7% rise paid in 2023, and higher than the three that followed: 3.2% for 2024, 2.5% for 2025 and 2.8% for 2026.
How the figure is calculated
The formula is set in law and leaves the agency no discretion. It takes the average of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) for July, August and September and compares it with the same three-month average a year earlier. The percentage change, rounded to the nearest tenth, becomes the COLA. If prices fell, benefits would stay flat rather than drop.
With July and August already published, only the September reading is outstanding, which is why estimates have narrowed in recent weeks. A surprise in that one month can still move the final number by a tenth of a point or so.
What a 3.5% rise would mean in dollars
After the 2.8% increase that took effect in January 2026, the average monthly retirement benefit stood at about $2,071. On that base, a 3.5% adjustment would add roughly $72 a month, or about $870 over a full year. Each 0.1 percentage point moves the average cheque by about $2 a month. These are illustrations only; the actual figure arrives on Wednesday.
Individual amounts differ, because the percentage is applied to each person’s own benefit. Someone receiving $1,500 a month would get about $53 more at 3.5%; someone receiving $3,000 would get about $105.
The net increase can be smaller than the headline. Medicare Part B premiums are usually deducted directly from Social Security payments, and the 2027 premium has not yet been published. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services typically announces it in the autumn. A rise in that premium absorbs part of the COLA for most retirees enrolled in Medicare.
When the new amount reaches bank accounts
The adjustment applies to benefits paid from January 2027. Social Security recipients will see it in their January payment, on the usual schedule set by date of birth or claim date. Supplemental Security Income (SSI) recipients will receive it earlier: SSI is normally paid on the first of the month, and because 1 January is a public holiday, the January 2027 payment is due on Thursday 31 December 2026.
The agency sends each beneficiary a notice of their new benefit amount, which those with a my Social Security account can read online in December. The 2027 cap on earnings subject to Social Security tax, and the limits for people working while claiming early, are usually announced with the COLA.
The September inflation report, and with it the 2027 percentage, is scheduled for release at 8:30am Eastern on Wednesday 14 October.
Further reading
- SSA: Provisions affecting cost-of-living adjustment
- US Bureau of Labor Statistics: Consumer Price Index
Image: N Giovannucci, CC BY-SA 4.0 via Wikimedia Commons
This article was produced with AI assistance and reviewed by our Editorial Desk. How we work.
